30,000 simulations of the actual knockout bracket. Each tie is decided by the model (Round-of-32 ties calibrated to live bookmaker odds; deeper rounds by team rating + a coin-flip for extra time). Updates as results come in.
| # | Team | Champion | Title odds | Reach final | Reach semis | 3rd place |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 16.7% | 31.9% | 54.3% | 12.9% | |
| 2 | Argentina | 15.1% | 25.3% | 43.4% | 11.1% | |
| 3 | Spain | 12.2% | 22.3% | 38.0% | 9.5% | |
| 4 | Brazil | 11.3% | 19.9% | 35.6% | 9.3% | |
| 5 | Mexico | 8.2% | 14.9% | 26.5% | 6.8% | |
| 6 | Colombia | 7.4% | 13.7% | 26.4% | 7.1% | |
| 7 | Morocco | 6.3% | 14.2% | 29.5% | 7.3% | |
| 8 | England | 5.7% | 12.3% | 26.2% | 6.9% | |
| 9 | Portugal | 4.0% | 8.7% | 18.3% | 4.7% | |
| 10 | USA | 3.7% | 8.9% | 21.1% | 5.4% | |
| 11 | Belgium | 1.9% | 5.8% | 16.6% | 3.9% | |
| 12 | Switzerland | 1.8% | 4.2% | 10.8% | 2.7% | |
| 13 | Canada | 1.7% | 4.9% | 11.7% | 2.8% | |
| 14 | Norway | 1.3% | 4.0% | 11.8% | 2.7% | |
| 15 | Australia | 0.9% | 2.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | |
| 16 | Egypt | 0.6% | 1.9% | 6.7% | 1.6% | |
| 17 | Paraguay | 0.4% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | Croatia | 0.4% | 1.2% | 3.9% | 0.9% | |
| 19 | Austria | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | Ghana | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | Cape Verde | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | Algeria | 0.1% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
“3rd place” = winning the third-place play-off (one of the two semi-final losers).