30,000 simulations of the actual knockout bracket. Each tie is decided by the model (Round-of-32 ties calibrated to live bookmaker odds; deeper rounds by team rating + a coin-flip for extra time). Updates as results come in.
| # | Team | Champion | Title odds | Reach final | Reach semis | 3rd place |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 64.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | Argentina | 35.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | France | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 61.4% | |
| 4 | England | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 38.6% |
“3rd place” = winning the third-place play-off (one of the two semi-final losers).