Match predictor

Dixon-Coles scoreline model. The recommended pick maximises expected points under your scoring rules — not just the most likely score.

Scoring rules
Expected goals1.01–1.06
✅ Best pick1–1
Exp. points0.671
Most likely1–1 16%
Outcome probabilitymodel only · no odds
Argentina 31%Draw 35%Brazil 34%
Scoreline probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
15
11
7
2
1
0
1
10
16
7
3
1
0
2
6
7
4
1
0
0
3
2
2
1
0
0
0
4
1
1
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
rows = Argentina goals · cols = Brazil goals
⚡ Wild Picks — derived markets model onlyknockout rules · goals incl. ET/pens
Total goals (incl. ET/pens)
1most likely
Over 2.5 (90'): 34% · Under: 66%
0:0% 1:26% 2:14% 3:25% 4:8% 5:8% 6:3%
Decided in ET / penalties?
NO35% yes
Level after 90': 35% · reaches shootout: 20%
Both teams to score
NO44% yes
Argentina & Brazil both find the net
Either team scores 3+
NO17% yes
Any single team reaching 3 goals
Half-time result
Draw
Argentina 23% · Draw 53% · Brazil 24%
Goalless at half-time
NO42%
0–0 at the break
First to score
Brazil
Argentina 43% · Brazil 45% · none 13%
Argentina goals (incl. ET/pens)
1most likely
0:24% 1:28% 2:22% 3:12% 4:7%
Brazil goals (incl. ET/pens)
1most likely
0:23% 1:27% 2:23% 3:12% 4:7%
Goal after 75'
NO37% yes
At least one goal in the last 15'+
Total yellow cards
2~2.34 exp
Over 3.5: 21% · this WC averages 2.3/match
Any red card?
NO10% yes
Only ~8% of matches this WC
Clean sheet
Argentina 35% · Brazil 36%
Team concedes zero

Half-time ≈ 45% of goals; late-goal ≈ 22% after the 75th. Card markets use this tournament's actual played-match rates (re-run export_cards each matchday). Corners not in the feed.

Rating breakdown — how each expected-goals number is built
ComponentArgentinaBrazil
Base attack · results + FIFA rank1.541.53
Base defence · higher = stingier1.471.53
Squad strength ×0 · OVR 76/75.1+0.00+0.00
Recent form ×0.1 · last 5, ppg+0.00+0.00
Final attack / defence1.54 / 1.471.53 / 1.53
→ Expected goals1.011.06

xG = exp(attack − opponent defence). Squad OVR is shown for context but weighted 0 — backtesting found it hurt accuracy (the base already captures strength). Form is lightly weighted and engages once teams have prior results.

Form, ranking & availability — why the model leans this way

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Squad ratings — top performers, side by side

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